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November 2015 Housing Report

by | Dec 30, 2015 | Housing Report

Seasonal factors are starting to weigh on the Houston housing market along with the continued strains on our local energy industry.  The overall trend across a variety of factors is negative on a year or year basis.  However, there are still a few bright spots in the local market.

Let’s take a deeper look at the data for this month’s Houston Association of Realtors November Housing Report.

The onset of the holiday shopping season and continued strains within the energy industry weighed on Houston’s housing market in November. Home sales fell for the second consecutive month and dragged average price down with them, marking the first price decline since February 2012.

Although the decline in home sales and average sales price is disappointing, some of the decline is related to seasonal factors.

Only homes in the $150,000 to $250,000 price segment experienced positive sales volume.  That, coupled with a 22 percent drop in luxury home sales, accounted for the decline in average price.

The middle of the market appears to still be very solid.

Among homes that did sell in November, Days on Market (DOM), or the number of days it took the average home to sell, edged up to 55 days versus 54 in 2014.

Very small increase in DOM.  Homes continue to sell about the same time frame with the addition of pricing pressure in the current marketplace.

“The Houston housing market saw further correction in November and will likely exit the year with exactly the declines that were forecast coming off record-setting sales in 2014 and an environment of limited inventory and plunging oil prices,” said HAR Chair Nancy Furst with Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Anderson Properties.

This statement puts the current decline in perspective… we are exiting a period of record sales in 2014 driven by a market that had limited inventory and buyers with extra cash.

Houston’s housing inventory has held at about a 3.5-months supply since July of this year, up from the 2.7-months supply recorded in November 2014. That level still remains below the current 4.8-months national supply of homes reported by the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

The Houston marketplace continues to outperform the national housing marketplace.  Inventory is still constrained when compared to the national average.

Monthly Metrics

Total Property Sales

  • Total property sales saw a decline of 10.1% vs. November 2014
  • The outlook continues to be negative for total property sales
  • The negative outlook is leading to extra inventory on the marketplace as active listings rose 21%

Total Active Listing

  • There was a 21.5% increase of active listings on the market vs. November 2014
  • There is a larger supply of homes in market vs. last year

Single Family Homes Months Of Inventory

  • This represents a 28.7% increase from November 2014
  • Months inventory estimates the number of months it will take to deplete current active inventory based on the prior 12 months sales activity. This figure is representative of the single-family homes market.

Single Family Home Average Sales Price

  • The Average Sales Price declined by 3.5% vs. November 2014
  • The slowing local economy and season demand are driving down sales prices.